بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Question

The US attacks on Iran and the Iranian reactions to those attacks have been ongoing for more than three months… (“The US Command stated that it carried out precise strikes targeting an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island… In contrast, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it targeted a US base in the region…” Al Jazeera, 3/6/2026). Similarly, the attacks of the Occupying Entity in Palestine continue on southern Lebanon (“Clashes continued overnight between ‘Israel’ and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite Trump’s announcement that both sides agreed to a cessation of hostilities prior to a new round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel being held today in Washington…” BBC, 2/6/2026).

America, along with its protégé, the Occupying Entity in Palestine, had carried out an aggression against Iran on 28/2/2026 that lasted for about 40 days, killing nearly 40 senior political and military officials, led by its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Through this, America planned to overthrow the regime or transform it from a satellite state (dawlat falak) into a dependency (dawla tabi’ah). However, this did not happen. This was followed by indirect negotiations in Pakistan between Iran and America, interspersed with proposals back and forth between the two sides amidst the aggression of America and its protégé, the Occupying Entity in Palestine, and the Iranian response. No proposal has been agreed upon so far.

What is Iran’s current status? Has it become an independent state, has it remained a satellite state, or is it vacillating between the two? May Allah reward you with goodness.

Answer

To answer the above questions, we review the following matters:

1. When America, along with the Occupying Entity, carried out the aggression against Iran on 28/2/2026 and killed about 40 of its political and military leaders—headed by its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the highest official in the country—this action indicates that America is dissatisfied with Iran’s leadership and policy. It wants to get rid of this leadership and change this policy because it noticed that this leadership has independent inclinations, and thus wanted to bring in leaders who would be subservient to it.

We stated in a Question Answer dated 4/4/2026, under the title “The Aggression on Iran”:

“It appears that the calculations of America and the Occupying Entity in Palestine were wrong. When they launched their aggression against Iran, it appeared that they had set a short duration for the war, estimated at four days, via a swift, massive attack targeting its senior leadership, nuclear facilities, manufacturing centers, and missile launch sites. They thought that by simply striking the head of the regime and its first-tier leaders, the second-tier would surrender and submit to their conditions—as happened in Venezuela when US forces kidnapped its president, and his deputy and those with her surrendered to America. However, this did not happen in Iran after its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and some regime leaders were killed. The Revolutionary Guard held firm and decided to confront this aggression and attack the enemies… This indicates that America aims to change the regime’s policy from a satellite state to a dependent state, so it can dictate its terms in negotiations with Iran. Yet, it was unable to do so, and thus decided to continue the war.”

Therefore, Iran’s current situation is a rupture with America, except for some telephone contact between some officials in the foreign ministries of the two countries and indirect communication through a third party like Pakistan.

2. The Iranian response was impactful; it refused to back down or make concessions regarding the nuclear file or the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that its response called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and ensuring the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad under sanctions imposed years ago… (Al Arabiya, 12 May 2026). All of this indicates that the methods used by the US administration to deal with the Iran file and turn it into a dependent state have failed, causing statements by US officials to signal patience and a long-term approach to the Iranian issue.

3. When Trump failed to achieve his goal regarding Iran through the 40-day aggression and the killing of numerous first- and second-tier leaders, he announced a 15-point plan… It is clear from the points of this plan that it is a surrender plan! It means stripping Iran of its intrinsic power—its missile and nuclear capabilities. This led to a strong reaction from the Revolutionary Guard instead of surrendering to Trump’s conditions.

When Iran did not surrender and insisted on its position and readiness to fight, America announced the resumption of negotiations to sign an agreement with it. It sent its second-highest official, Vice President Vance, to Pakistan to negotiate with the Iranians on 11/4/2026. Vance stated:

“The Iranian negotiators want to strike a deal. But President Trump does not want a limited agreement with Iran; rather, he seeks a grand bargain that ends the conflict completely… We have made tremendous progress in the Pakistan negotiations. Our meetings with the Iranian leadership were historic, something that hasn’t happened in 49 years under any previous administration. I sat face-to-face with the person actually responsible for Iran’s affairs, and we sensed a desire to conclude an agreement…” (Fox News, 14/4/2026).

It appears that the US President grew greedier when he saw Iran’s acceptance of some of his conditions, which is why his Vice President said, “But President Trump does not want a limited agreement with Iran, but rather a grand bargain…”.

4. Following this, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, hours before the expiration of the truce he had announced about two weeks prior, in order [to enable the two countries to continue peace talks, as he phrased it… Al Jazeera, 22/4/2026]. However, Iran announced its refusal to negotiate under pressure, demanding the lifting of the US blockade on its ports.

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on 20/4/2026: “Operation Midnight Hammer (his aggression with the IDF in 2025) was a complete and total destruction of nuclear dust sites (meaning enriched uranium) in Iran, and therefore extracting it will be a long and difficult process,” in order to ease his condition requiring the handover of enriched uranium to him or to a third party. He has come to favor achieving his country’s goals through negotiations because he saw that achieving them through war is not easy; hence, flexibility is appearing in the stances. The truce is indefinite… and there is difficulty in extracting the amount enriched to 60%, which amounts to about 441 kilograms.

5. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed on 13/4/2026 on the X platform the progress of the negotiations with America in Pakistan, where he was part of his country’s delegation. He stated: “The Iranian negotiating delegation in Islamabad, while it was on the verge of reaching an agreement, faced exaggerated demands, constantly shifting goals, and threats of a blockade.” This aligns with the statement of Trump’s Vice President that things were on the verge of achieving a certain agreement, but Trump wanted more! He wants Iran to surrender and become a dependent state to him, like other countries in the region. He said: “The Iranian leadership is confused… and if they want to talk, all they have to do is call us” (Fox News, 25/4/2026).

6. Iran realizes the extent of America’s need to calm things down without a hot war due to Trump’s domestic situation, so that his party does not lose the Congressional midterm elections in November. If he loses them, it will affect him as a president who needs Congressional approval on many issues, including waging wars, and it will affect the presidential elections in two years. This is in addition to Trump’s consideration of America hosting the World Cup, which begins on 11/6/2026. Consequently, Iran worked to strengthen its position and announced its readiness to wage war once again against America and its protégé, the Occupying Entity in Palestine. Here, it appears that the faction running the regime in Iran (the Revolutionary Guard) is now moving of its own volition and decision, seeking independence from America, unlike the political faction that wants to reach an understanding with America and work with it as a satellite state (dawlat falak) at the very least, rather than a dependent state.

7. Trump resorted to another method in an attempt to pressure Iran, announcing on 4/5/2026 the launch of an operation named “Project Freedom” under the pretext of helping ships from countries he described as neutral—which are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz and have nothing to do with the Middle East crisis—to transit the strait. When it did not succeed, he halted the project, announcing on his Truth Social platform at dawn on 6/5/2026 the suspension of his operation, stating: “At the request of Pakistan and other countries, and given the massive military successes we have achieved in the operation we are conducting against Iran, as well as making major progress toward reaching a full and final agreement with Iran’s representatives, we have mutually decided to briefly suspend Project Freedom, while the blockade remains fully in place, to see if a final agreement can be reached with Iran.”

8. The American website Axios quoted a Pakistani source on 6/5/2026 as saying: “America and Iran are close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum to end the war. The agreement includes Iran’s commitment to suspend uranium enrichment, America’s approval to lift its sanctions, the release of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions imposed on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.” This confirms that Trump is in a hurry to conclude an agreement with Iran because returning to the resumption of fighting requires Congressional approval, which is not guaranteed, and because the results of resuming fighting are also not guaranteed, as he has already tried it and failed. Likewise, his project to rescue stranded ships in the Gulf via “Project Freedom” requires a long time to succeed and is fraught with dangers, especially since Iran threatens to retaliate, which exposes the very ships hoped to be saved to danger. What is noticeable about Trump, the real estate mogul, is that he wants to achieve quick, profitable political deals, measuring politics by the metrics of trade!

9. [“US President Donald Trump announced today, Sunday, his rejection of the response submitted by Iran through the Pakistani mediator regarding his proposal to end the war in the region. Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform: ‘I just read the response from the so-called representatives of Iran, I did not like it, completely unacceptable.’ In the first comment on Trump’s rejection of the Iranian response, Iranian television stated: ‘The response submitted by Tehran to the US proposal to end the war, which Trump described as unacceptable, included an emphasis on the fundamental rights of the Iranian people.’ Iranian television added that Tehran rejected the US proposal because accepting it would be a surrender… It pointed out that the Iranian response also stressed the necessity of the United States paying war reparations and emphasized Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz… Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 11/5/2026]

10. This response angered US President Trump, who said on 12/5/2026: (“The ceasefire is now on a massive life support system, much like a doctor entering the room and saying your loved one has about a 1% chance of survival. Iran thinks I will get tired of this. I will get bored or I will face some pressure.” He added: “After reading this garbage [the Iranian response] they sent to us—in fact, I didn’t even finish reading it”… Asharq Al-Awsat, 12/5/2026). Nevertheless, he went back to say: (“We will see what happens regarding Iran, and we are only seeking to strike a good deal. I do not think we need any help regarding Iran, and we will win one way or another. The only thing that matters for Iran is that it cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon… Al Jazeera, 12/5/2026).

11. Then they returned to talking about amending or improving the agreement. The Axios news website, as reported by Al-Najah News website on 24/5/2026, quoted a US official saying: [“The United States and Iran are on the verge of signing an agreement that provides for extending the ceasefire for a period of 60 days, during which the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The agreement also provides that Iran will be able to sell oil freely and hold negotiations regarding curbing the Iranian nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz will open during the 60-day period without fees being imposed, and Iran will agree to remove the mines it planted in the strait to allow ships freedom of passage. The report added that in return, and as part of a proposed agreement, the United States will lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely. The report said the draft agreement also includes commitments from Iran never to seek to possess nuclear weapons, to negotiate a suspension of its uranium enrichment program, and to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium… The Axios report mentioned that America will also agree to negotiate lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period. The White House has not yet responded to the report…”].

12. On 29/5/2026, Al Arabiya published, citing Reuters: [“The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and allow the lifting of restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US blockade on Iran’s ports, and the removal of some sanctions imposed on it, but the agreement has not yet seen final touches put in place… Reaching an agreement would constitute a major step toward ending a war that has pushed the world into an energy crisis, but the fundamental dispute over Iran’s nuclear program will only be discussed in talks during the following weeks. Vance, Trump’s deputy, said on Thursday: ‘We haven’t reached it yet, but we are very close and we will continue to work on the matter.’ Iran has not officially commented yet. However, the semi-official Iranian ‘Tasnim’ news agency quoted a source close to the negotiating team saying that the text of the agreement has not had its final touches put in place yet and has not been confirmed… It took years of negotiations between large teams of experts and specialists to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program in 2015. Trump withdrew from that agreement during his first presidential term in 2018… Al Arabiya, 29/5/2026]

13. [“The White House said that President Trump will not conclude a deal with Tehran unless it meets all conditions. The Axios website quoted an official in the US administration saying that announcing the agreement with Iran could take a few days or more than a week until President Trump gets what he is asking for… According to what was reported by the website… Trump’s reservations include some points he wants to amend in the agreement, such as: opening the Strait of Hormuz, the United States obtaining the enriched uranium, and amendments to the draft of Iran’s nuclear program. The New York Times reported that Trump’s new amendments, with the participation of mediators from Pakistan, were sent back to Tehran for consideration by the Iranian leadership, pointing to an additional expected delay for the official announcement of the agreement due to the difficulty of direct communication with the Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei… Meanwhile, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to tighten its naval blockade on Iranian ports… Al Jazeera, 31/5/2026]

14. In the midst of this, while the agreement between Trump and Iran is subject to give-and-take, the Occupying Entity in Palestine continues its aggression against southern Lebanon:

• A. [“The Israeli army said it took control of Beaufort Castle (Qala’at al-Shaqif) following fire clashes supported by heavy cover fire from ground and air forces, coinciding with a wide escalation that included the areas of Nabatieh, Wadi al-Slouqi, and Wadi al-Hujair, within the framework of the confrontations that erupted with the Lebanese Hezbollah in the context of the American-Israeli-Iranian war in late February 2026… Al Jazeera, 1/6/2026]

• B. [“The Israeli army issued an evacuation warning to the residents of the southern suburb of Beirut (Dahiyeh), hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu announced directives for military escalation. The Israeli army said in a statement this Monday afternoon that if Hezbollah continues to fire rockets toward Israeli cities and towns, we will respond by striking targets in the southern suburb of Beirut… Al Jazeera, 1/6/2026]

• C. Although Al Arabiya Net published on 2/6/2026 that US President Trump (“indicated in a phone call that a minor glitch occurred but stressed that he handled it very quickly, explaining that the matter related to the Iranians’ resentment over the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. He added: ‘I spoke with Hezbollah and said no firing, and I spoke with Netanyahu and said no firing, and both sides stopped firing at each other’… Al Arabiya Net, 2/6/2026), the Occupying Entity in Palestine did not apply this to all of Lebanon but only to the Dahiyeh, and continues its aggression on the South. Naturally, with a green light from Trump—as it cannot oppose him—it continued its attacks on southern Lebanon: [Under the title ‘Our position will not change in Israel,’ Netanyahu said he informed Trump that his forces would strike Beirut if Hezbollah did not stop attacking Israel, adding, according to a statement issued by his office: ‘Our position on this matter has not changed, and at the same time, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon’… Independent Arabia, 2/6/2026], [“Clashes continued overnight between ‘Israel’ and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite Trump’s announcement that both sides agreed to a cessation of hostilities prior to a new round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel being held today in Washington… BBC, 2/6/2026].

15. From this chain of events and what results from them, the following matters become clear:

• A. That there is still a rupture between Iran and America, and there is currently no coordination between them to work together in the region as a satellite state as was the case in the past. This is especially true since those controlling governance today in Iran are the men of the Revolutionary Guard, and these individuals are pushing toward independence—meaning not returning to America’s orbit. It is most likely that they will continue to control governance because they had the upper hand in choosing the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba… And in pivotal matters of governance such as war and eliminating internal uprisings, the new Supreme Leader leans upon them to preserve his rule… Although the “political class” still exists in Iran—such as the President of the Republic, the Foreign Minister, and the Speaker of Parliament—and the maximum they strive for is for Iran to return to revolving in America’s orbit, their actual influence cannot stand against the Revolutionary Guard.

• B. In contrast to this, America has failed so far to make the regime in Iran dependent on it—meaning like the other client regimes in the lands of the Muslims. Despite this, Trump is still insistent that the regime in Iran become dependent on him rather than revolving in his orbit as it used to be, despite his failure in that. He wants everything from Iran—meaning the achievement of 100% of his demands and not 90% or 95%, as he says: (“I don’t want 90% and I don’t want 95%. I told them I want everything”… TV Lebanon, 12/4/2026). He said this today, Wednesday, 3/6/2026, just a short while ago: (“The situation regarding Iran is developing rapidly and it will be very good, pointing out that Iran agreed not to possess a nuclear weapon… Al Arabiya, 3/6/2026). Although Trump’s statements are not accurate enough to be relied upon, these are his declared positions—meaning that Trump wants Iran to be a dependent state to him that does not oppose him, despite the failure he encountered in that! To cover up this failure, he plays with words, repeats draft agreements, and then backtracks to oppose them… and so on and so forth!

• C. As for that which breaks the back of Trump and other colonialist disbelieving “Trumps” just for thinking of committing aggression against the lands of the Muslims, and sends every disbeliever back to his own homeland—if a home remains for him—it is the return of the Righteous Khilafah (Caliphate). It is returning by the permission of Allah, a promise from Allah the Almighty (An-Nur: 55)

Allah has promised those of you who believe and do good that He will certainly make them successors in the land, as He did with those before them; and will surely establish for them their faith which He has chosen for them; and will indeed change their fear into security—˹provided that˺ they worship Me, associating nothing with Me. But whoever disbelieves after this ˹promise˺, it is they who will be the rebellious.